Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
