Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
