A mere 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After the England international curled home his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the positive results have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a club which has just won 10 in a row, the Villans appear strangely fragile – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents registered more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa have to face in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the football into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
